The investment bank predicts that by the fourth quarter of this year, the market will face problems of insufficient supply and reduction of idle capacity. Energy consulting company FGE said that it is expected that by mid-209, Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports will fall beloCurrent crude oil transaction pricesw 0 million barrels.
At present, domestic gas stations are still dominated by PetroChina and Sinopec. Among them, PetroChina has about 2,000 and Sinopec has about 2,000. There are only 1,000 gas stations in foreign capital. Because of the monopoly, everyone hopes that more foreign gas stations will enter to compete with two barrels of oil. The good news is that a lot of foreign cheering cards will be added.
The price of crude oil has exceeded 7 and 72 dollars in succession before. Just when it was about to touch 7 dollars, the market was suppressed and fell. On Tuesday, there were no obvious negative factors to suppress oil prices. API inventory was only flat, and long and short were offset. It is inferred that the market started to sell crude oil at a high level and caused the decline in oil prices. But is such a sell-off endless? Obviously not, this round of market sell-off is clearly only hoping that crude oil prices can stabilize above $70, because investors know that although the situation in the Middle East is cooling right now, there are actually huge waves hidden under the calm water.
Unfortunately, most investors who hold EOG bonds have not been able to recover their funds. When the U.S. stock market enters a bear market again, it may have another shock to oil prices in the fall of this year. As oil prices fall back to low levels, the crude oil market, which itself is not very stable, will suffer a fatal blow, and it will also bring the US economy into a new round of crisis.
Tomorrow June 22, the OPEC meeting will be held in Vienna, and the production reduction allies headed by Russia will also gather. The main topic of the meeting will be the growth of crude oil. As Russia and Saudi Arabia have proposed a slowdown in production reduction agreements, which have been opposed by oil-producing countries such as Iran and Iraq, the OPEC meeting will be the most intense in history. For OPEC, the challenge facing this meeting is how to increase production without modifying the production reduction agreement.
Last week, the US Baker Hughes crude oil drilling data showed that the total crude oil drilling data reached 808. Although the US EAI crude oil inventory announced last week decreased Current crude oil transaction pricesby 4.67 million barrels, the continuous increase in crude oil drilling means that production capacity is still rising.
Indeed, Sinopec is mainly distributed in the south, and there are relatively few oil fields in the south, so the oil is imported. PetroChina is mainly distributed in the north. Everyone knows that there are many oil fields in the north, such as Daqing Oilfield and Liaohe Oilfield. Therefore, PetroChina's oil is basically domestically produced. It is precisely because Sinopec's oil is imported, it is slightly better than PetroChina in terms of refining technology. The fuel additives used are also better, so the fuel density is relatively high.
OPEC and some non-OPEC major oil producing countries are scheduled to meet in Vienna on June 22. An ANZ Bank report said: If there are any signs that oil-producing country groups may move towards early withdrawal from the production reduction agreement, it will suppress oil prices.
Economic factors are mainly the relationship between supply and demand. The demand side is mainly the three major consumption centers of North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe, and the supply side is mainly oil and gas production centers in the Middle East, Central Asia-Russia, North America, and Latin America. The ups and downs of the two are factors that affect oil prices.
Schallenberger said that apart from Saudi Arabia and Russia, no crude oil producer can make up for Iran's supply gap. I expect Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase production when necessary, and supply shortages and higher oil prices may be a major risk facing the global economy in 209, Schallenberger added.