According to IEA estimates, OPEC and its allies can use about 400,000 barrels of idle oil production capacity for emergency, most of which are in the hands of Saudi Arabia. If the increase in production reached by the OPEC meeting last week is implemented by 0 million barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia’s production is increased to a record-breaking 0.8 million barrels per day next month, about 40% of idle capacity has been consumed, and the emergency capacity available globally will be Only about 6% of the global supply is left. Taking into account the production status of Libya and Venezuela, this emergency reserve is quite dangerous. Many investment banks have raised their oil price expectatioRussian European crude oil spot prices in the 20th centuryns on the grounds of insufficient idle capacity.
US Secretary of State Pompeo said that there is still time to repair the flaws in the Iran nuclear agreement, and the United States has not yet made a decision on whether to withdraw from the agreement. However, he also pointed out that Iran is the world's largest sponsor of terrorism. If the flaws of the agreement cannot be remedied, it is unlikely that Trump will continue to maintain the agreement after May this year.
Third, from 2009 to 20 years, after the subprime mortgage crisis caused oil prices to plummet to a low of US$2/barrel in 2008, with the support of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and OPEC’s production cut by 5 million barrels/day, oil prices resumed their position during this period. Above $00.
Venezuela will hold general elections on May 20 this weekend. However, the United States has always condemned the election as a hoax and threatened to join other countries in imposing tougher sanctions on Venezuela. In fact, the United States imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s Maduro-related individuals and entities last Monday, but it avoided the blow to Venezuela’s oil industry. However, as early as February of this year, former US Secretary of State Tillerson said that sanctions on Venezuela's oil or prohibiting its sale of crude oil in the United States is something the White House has been considering. Whether the hammer of sanctions against crude oil will finally fall depends on the general election on May 20.
The number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States fell short of expectations, with an increase of only 50,000, and the non-agricultural report showed that wage growth was slower than expected. The Fed's 209 interest rate hike plan was affected, causing the US dollar index to plummet, which is positive for international oil prices.
The oil ministers of all countries agreed thatRussian European crude oil spot prices in the 20th century oversupply should be avoided when withdrawing from the production reduction agreement. Novak said there is an option to extend the agreement beyond 208 years; at the same time, he expects the market to balance in the fourth quarter of next year.
There will be many important macro data in the US this week. Key points of concern include the initial value of US GDP in the first quarter, US durable goods order data, Markit comprehensive PMI, US existing home sales and new home sales. Among them, the US GDP is the most concerned. The market expects that the GDP data on Friday, April 27, will show a slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter, although this data is still quite solid, with an annual rate of% expected.